Glimpse of Alice in 2030

Three reports by KIERAN FINNANE

Photo at right: Your pushbike – in a small town like Alice – is the answer to much of our greenhouse pollution.

What will it be like to live in Alice Springs in 2030 – taking into account climate change and other changes?
A group of researchers from CDU are attempting to paint a picture, based as much on the imagination of local people as on scientific data.
In fact, information about the impact of climate change at a regional level is “very uncertain”, said Stephen Garnett, Director of the School for Environmental Research.
And he would be relying on local expertise to point to data in the other areas that will be explored in the scenario modelling exercise.
Some 30 people, mostly from environment-oriented professions, gathered for the first workshop of this exercise on Monday, convened by Rolf Gerritsen, Research Leader for CDU in Central Australia. Dr Garnett noted the lack of business people present.
The future can’t be predicted, he said, but by pulling together a lot of different ideas and using the best data and knowledge currently available, you can get close.
That knowledge is useful in talking to policy-makers and developing contingency plans, allowing communities to be better placed to respond to future shocks.
A simple example of scenario modelling is to look at relationships between possible temperature rises, population increases and the demand for electricity to power air-conditioning. At some point the demand exceeds capacity, said Dr Garnett.
Discussion began around the scale of the group’s concern: did they want to focus on Alice Springs alone? Nobody did. Areas within a 300 km radius from town were considered to be the minimal area of interest, with support for going further, to at least 500 kms.
Generally it was thought the APY Lands of the far north of South Australia needed to be included.
Tennant Creek needed its own scenario but should also be taken into account in the Alice discussion.
The eastern-most communities and pastoral lands of the NT were deemed to be more oriented to Queensland.
There was no firm data on climate change to direct the discussion.
It would be hotter in summer and slightly cooler in winter, with less frequent rainfall coming in “big lumps”.
In small group discussion these were some of the ideas canvassed:
• Economic and social factors would have bigger influences on Central Australia than climate change over the next 20 years.
High water, energy and fuel costs would drive the economy into “shutdown mode”; tourism, cattle industries would shrivel; there would be a drop in population and a change in demographic, with far more Indigenous than non-Indigenous people.
Alice under this scenario would survive “like Tennant Creek” – a regional centre to serve local needs.
Social welfare would take over the major industries.
• With small communities impacted by the cascade effect of economic change across the country, Alice Springs would become a magnet for those populations.
There was a lot of agreement around the impact being greatest for Aboriginal people.
• On the positive side, there was a lot of speculation around the opportunities for the town and the region to become more self-sufficient: to eat its own meat, grow more of its own fruit and vegetables in dispersed locations, recycle its water, take advantage of its renewable energy resources, become a model of desert living.
But the need for good information around these ideas was noted, for instance, information on the impact of using recycled sewage water on salinity levels and soil structure.
• On the pessimistic side there was gloom about the educational level specifically of the Indigenous population. In 20 years’ time the people at decision-making and leadership age would be the 20 year olds of today who are generally poorly educated.
• A town of 25,000 people doesn’t count on a national scale, but on the other hand, Alice does attract a lot of attention and “punches above its weight”.
And because it’s small and off the national energy grid, there may be an opportunity to “get it right here”.
• What happens in Alice and the region is subject to so many external decisions. For instance, the tariffs for power and water are set by the NT Government and their low level does not encourage conservation.
• Change may be driven by things getting worse: the hip-pocket will be hit so hard it will lead to innovation.
• A worst case scenario was that we wouldn’t have learnt anything. Looking at the present, what have we learnt, what are we passing on to our kids?
• Another was that the town would become a fly in, fly out mine, “China’s quarry”.
Drawing from the discussions, Dr Garnett identified the following as the areas in which to develop models: population change; tourism; fuel costs; urban drift; water use; horticulture; energy; skills and education; health services; infrastructure and its sustainability; transport; federal policy (and other external influences); outstation support; the federal Intervention in Indigenous communities; energy efficiency policy; an emissions trading scheme; a sustainable pastoral industry; food self-reliance; morale and social function; feral animals; eco-system health; desert knowledge; mining; fire; wealth and benefit distribution; the desert as dumping ground for waste and prisons;  migration (bringing skills and refugees); disease (bio-security); governance (including the case for a separate territory of Centralia); creativity and innovation; opportunities for cohesion; opportunities for positive adaptation to climate change.
The models developed will come to the group for further refinement before a report is drafted.
“Ultimately that is the purpose of the process,” said Dr Garnett, “to get people thinking hard about how they might adapt to climate change when it happens.
“The worst disasters are those that take you by surprise.”


Uranium, Timor gas ‘our hope’

The Territory’s uranium resources and Timor Sea gas are identified as “substantial greenhouse-friendly energy resources” with “strong potential” for expansion in the NT Government’s discussion paper on Climate Change Issues.
They head the paper’s list of “strategic opportunities” for the NT presented by climate change.
If uranium and gas were used to replace coal, says the paper, they would lead to the avoidance of around 200 million tonnes of carbon annually, equivalent to nearly 15 times the NT’s own emissions.
Moving agricultural production to the north is mentioned as a possible opportunity – yet to be studied in any detail.
Emissions from the land clearing involved would be offset by reforestation in the southern regions of the country, suggest the paper.
Savannah burning, which substantially contributes to the NT being one of the worst per capita carbon emitters in the world, is also presented as an opportunity, with improved fire management practices culminating in the ability to create carbon offsets.
There is no mention of renewable energy under the “opportunity” heading, though elsewhere it is suggested that “renewables” will be making an increasing contribution to our supplies of energy.
The paper is also upbeat about standards of living.
Costs are listed as higher prices for air-conditioning, fuel, air travel and a vast range of goods and services.
But this doesn’t mean necessarily that our living standards or economy will decline, it is suggested.
Using energy more efficiently – doing things like switching off lights to switching over time to more energy efficient buildings or sometimes walking to the shops instead of using the car – “should have no negative impact on our standard of living”.
Revenue from an emissions trading scheme (ETS), if recycled, would ensure a minimal negative effect from the ETS on economic activity, says the paper.
CONSTRAINED
It goes on: “The NT Government is determined to ensure that no actions will be taken that threaten the continuing development of the Territory’s economy in a carbon-constrained future.
“Ongoing economic growth will continue to deliver higher incomes for the NT community. With higher incomes, energy costs become a smaller proportion of the household expenditure.”
In its conclusions, however, the paper does recognise the need for: “enhanced data and information” to plan for the impacts of climate change; an examination of “the risks and vulnerability” for a range of “human and natural assets”; and to build “adaptive capacity” for ecosytems, communities and industries.

Solar City alone won’t get Town Council to 2010 greenhouse emissions reduction target

More than a year after the Town Council was taken to task over failure to implement its own plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and 10 years after they signed up to Cities For Climate Protection, an international campaign to involve local government in greenhouse gas emission reduction, they are again considering how to go forward.
As part of the campaign, council’s local action plan (LAP) aimed to reduce its own and community greenhouse gases by 20% by the year 2010.
A recent report by council’s environment officer, Reinier Laan, takes stock of where the LAP is at, which is well short of the target despite the Solar City project.
“It is not enough to rely on a few projects like the Alice Springs Solar City Consortium to reach the LAP goal,” writes Mr Laan.
Through that project the community sector greenhouse savings are expected to be some 12,900 tonnes, while the LAP target is 65,080 tonnes.
Mr Laan urges council to show leadership by further reducing its own emissions from sources such as water, energy and waste.
He makes a range of suggestions for action including a green procurement policy; encouragement of home composting and future kerbside recycling; reducing park lawn in consultation with residents; implementing policy to further reduce vehicle emissions; encouraging greater use of public transport by private vehicle users.
He says a feasibility study is necessary to prioritise actions.
His analysis shows that just over half of the LAP’s recommendations for council’s operations “are being completed”.
These included energy efficiency and lighting retrofit of council buildings; reduction of water consumption in parks; and waste reduction, all of which are ongoing.
START
A start has been made on further improvements in streetlight efficiency (this is being researched) and on research into energy efficient technology and alternative fuel use in council vehicles (the mayor drives a hybrid car).
In the community a cycle program managed by council’s sport and rec officer, management of the landfill tender to achieve waste reduction, and a public library reference section on energy efficiency are likewise ongoing.
The NT Government is extending the local bus routes, but a start has yet to be made on encouraging more people to use the busses instead of their cars.
Mr Laan gives these initiatives in the community, together with the Solar City project, a 62.5% completion rating.
He comments that the weakness of the LAP is that it concentrates on council operations and the residential part of the community, while it is business that will be responsible for 80% of emissions in Alice Springs in 2010.
Mr Laan says council needs to seek extra funding of $150,000 a year to help implement its LAP goals.
And he recommends that council’s new Environment Advisory Committee, chaired by Greens alderman Jane Clark, evaluate all LAP actions so that the reduction target of 65,0000 tonnes is reached more economically.
He writes that the council is in “high danger” of not reaching its 2010 target.


‘The nuclear non-solution’

The NT Government’s discussion paper on climate change has an inappropriate focus on uranium exports, environmentalists have charged.
Justin Tutty, from the No Waste Alliance, says the discussion paper fails on three counts :
• it is preoccupied with the “nuclear non-solution”;
• it argues for some of the dirtiest polluters in the Territory to be exempt from the anticipated emissions trading scheme;
• and, disappointingly, the significant potential of proven renewable energy options is discounted and dismissed.
“We were shocked to realise the paper erroneously lists nuclear power as renewable, and promotes expansion of uranium mining,” says Mr Tutty
Nat Wasley, from the Beyond Nuclear Initiative in Alice Springs, says the paper is a throwback to the Howard government’s pro-nuclear agenda.
“In 2006, the Liberals defied public opinion to propose 25 unwanted nuclear reactors in Australian cities,” says Ms Wasley
“They failed, because the evidence was stacked against them.
“And Territorians still have the proposal for a federal radioactive dump looming, and there is strong concern that with increased uranium exports, international pressure will see any national dump expanded to house international waste.”


Back to our home page.